Will China's Meituan entering Vietnam break the "GrabFood-ShopeeFood duopoly"? — The strategic intent behind setting up a Ho Chi Minh City entity, and the impact on Japanese restaurant chains

In February 2026, China's largest food delivery company Meituan established a Vietnamese entity. The company is named Meituan Technology Co., Ltd. and is based in Ho Chi Minh City. It began hiring for business development roles in March, with preparations for a full-scale entry into the Vietnamese market steadily advancing (source: VnExpress, March 2026).

Vietnam's food delivery market is currently in a de facto duopoly held by GrabFood (Singapore-based) and ShopeeFood (under Tencent-backed Sea Group). China's largest player muscling into this market carries more significance than a mere "one company entering the market." This article analyzes Meituan's entry strategy and its background, and examines the impact on Japanese restaurant and food companies operating in Vietnam.

Why is Meituan going south to Vietnam now?

Behind Meituan's search for overseas expansion lies saturation in China's domestic market. China's food delivery market growth has slowed since around 2023-2024. As penetration rises, competition with Alibaba-affiliated "Ele.me" is squeezing profit margins. Against this backdrop, Meituan has set its sights on Southeast Asia.

as a growth driver, with Vietnam in particular attractive as an entry destination for the following reasons.

• Population and age structure a young population of about 98 million with a median age of 31. Smartphone penetration exceeds 85% in urban areas, giving it a high affinity for food delivery
• Market size and growth rate Vietnam's food delivery market is worth about $1.4 billion as of 2025 (source: Statista, 2025). It continues to grow at 12-15% per year and is expected to exceed $2.5 billion by 2030
• Competitors' weaknesses GrabFood has high commission rates that generate significant dissatisfaction among restaurants, while ShopeeFood retains users through price competition but has not differentiated on service quality. There is room to break in between the two with a mix of "quality x speed x price"
• Cultural and geographic proximity to China Vietnam shares a land border with China and has strong influence from the Chinese character-based cultural sphere. This gives Chinese companies fertile ground for securing operations personnel

Mixue's success "paved the way" — the trajectory of Chinese F&B brands that entered earlier

In considering Meituan's entry, the context of the recent "Chinese F&B brand invasion of Vietnam" cannot be ignored.

Chinese tea drink chain Mixue expanded rapidly in Vietnam from around 2023, and as of the end of 2025 had reached 1,304 stores centered on Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi (see related article). At a price point of 30,000-50,000 VND per cup (approximately 175-290 yen), it has achieved a local sense of "cheap and tasty," winning overwhelming support especially from Gen Z.

What this success shows is a proven case that "a Chinese company can achieve large-scale expansion in Vietnam." With MIXUE leading the way, the "learning cost" around the local regulatory environment, consumer psychology, and operational challenges has come down. Meituan is in a position to draw on this precedent to build a more precise entry plan.

GrabFood and ShopeeFood's current position — the blind spots of the "two giants"

It is worth analyzing the current "rulers of the market" that Meituan is trying to enter.

GrabFood (Grab) is a super-app out of Singapore that operates an integrated platform for ride-hailing, food delivery, and payments in Vietnam. Its food delivery market share is estimated at about 45-50% (source: Momentum Works, 2025). Its strengths are strong brand recognition and app UX, but its weakness is a high commission rate to restaurants, around 30%, which has built up dissatisfaction among small and midsize eateries.

ShopeeFood leverages synergy with Sea Group's e-commerce arm Shopee and is on the offensive especially through price competition. It expanded its share through large-scale subsidy campaigns from 2021 to 2023, but has faced retention challenges since scaling back the subsidies.

These "two giants" share a common blind spot. It is the limits of their control over "food quality management." Both are platform models, so the quality of the food depends on the partner restaurants. Complaints about delivery delays and order mistakes are also common, leaving room for improvement in user satisfaction. What Meituan has honed in China is precisely the "operational optimization technology" that addresses this problem.

Meituan's "weapon" — technology and operations honed in China

Organizing the competitive advantages Meituan built up domestically in China reveals its potential strengths in Vietnam.

1. Delivery optimization algorithm Meituan has a proprietary delivery route optimization system called "Hive Dispatch." Trained on data from hundreds of millions of orders in China's major cities, this algorithm simultaneously shortens delivery times and cuts delivery costs. This AI could prove effective even in traffic-choked cities like Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi.

2. Know-how in restaurant partnerships Meituan has contracts with more than 8 million restaurants in China and has built an "ecosystem" that even handles digitalization support for restaurants, including POS systems, inventory management, and order forecasting. This know-how could also be used to bring small and midsize restaurant owners in Vietnam into its fold.

3. Financial firepower Meituan is a giant with a market capitalization of about $70 billion (as of August 2026). It has the financial strength to absorb losses from price competition in the early stage of market entry in order to capture share. Indeed, during its rise in China it dominated the market after a war of attrition with Ele.me.

"Scenario forecasts" if competition intensifies in Vietnam's food delivery market

How will Vietnam's food delivery market change if Meituan enters in earnest? Three scenarios can be envisioned.

Scenario A: Intensifying price competition (short term: 2026-2027)

A scenario in which Meituan pours in subsidized delivery fee cuts and large-scale discount coupons, prioritizing user acquisition first. This is the same strategy Grab and ShopeeFood took in their early entry stages, benefiting consumers but increasing the platforms' negotiating leverage over restaurant commissions. For Japanese restaurants, this brings the benefit of "lower delivery costs" but also the risk of growing dependence on the platform.

Scenario B: Differentiation-based competition (medium term: 2027-2029)

A scenario in which, after three companies coexist, competition shifts to differentiation by "speed," "quality," or "specific categories." GrabFood may establish a position around "super-app convenience," ShopeeFood around "low prices," and Meituan around "AI-driven optimal delivery quality." At this stage, moves toward exclusive contracts between platforms and specific restaurants could also emerge.

Scenario C: Consolidation through M&A (long term: from 2029 onward)

As seen in other Southeast Asian countries (Thailand, Indonesia), a scenario in which, after three or four companies compete, one or two with weaker financial strength withdraw or are acquired. Depending on the financial condition of Sea Group, ShopeeFood's parent, continuing to compete could become difficult.

Concrete implications for Japanese restaurant chains and food companies

Here is a look at how Meituan's entry into Vietnam will affect Japanese companies and what actions they should take.

1. The importance of a strategy of simultaneous listing on multiple platforms

Japanese restaurants relying solely on GrabFood should consider expanding to multiple platforms now. If Meituan enters, intensifying competition could lead each platform to demand "exclusive differentiated menus" or "limited coupons" from restaurants. Listing on multiple platforms simultaneously enables greater price negotiating power and maximized exposure.

2. Getting ahead of Meituan's "Japanese food position"

Signing on as an early adopter of the platform before Meituan launches in earnest in Vietnam is a chance to secure favorable commission rates and priority "recommended listing" slots. This coincides with the timing of rising Japanese brand presence in Vietnam, following Takashimaya's entry into Hanoi (2026).

3. B2B ingredient supply opportunities: growing demand for cloud kitchens

As competition intensifies, platform operators tend to increase investment in cloud kitchens (as seen in China). If cloud kitchens increase in Vietnam, B2B demand for Japanese seasonings, sauces, and frozen foods will rise. "Japanese-taste" menus in particular could become a competitive advantage for cloud kitchens targeting affluent consumers in Ho Chi Minh City.

4. Early collaboration with local partners

When Meituan sets up operations in Vietnam, it will inevitably seek partnerships with local restaurant companies and ingredient suppliers. By raising their hand as a partner at this stage, Japanese companies can achieve early integration into Meituan's ecosystem.

Summary — the "three-way era" opens a new door for Japanese companies

Meituan's entry into Vietnam acts as a catalyst that will turn Vietnam's food delivery market into a more mature "competitive arena." If the GrabFood-ShopeeFood "duopoly" is broken down, small and midsize restaurants gain more bargaining power, and consumers gain more choice and better service quality.

At the same time, challenges will also arise, such as fluctuating commission rates from intensifying competition, the risk of platform dependence, and data sovereignty issues. For Japanese restaurant chains and food makers, the important perspective is to treat this change not as a "threat" but as a "chance to stake out a position."

Now that Meituan has begun hiring, this is the best time to rethink food delivery strategy in the Vietnamese market.

Reference Information

• VnExpress: China food delivery giant Meituan set for Vietnam entry (March 2026)
• The shock of Mixue's 1,304 stores — as the Chinese F&B brand invasion of Vietnam proceeds, Japanese food companies are being asked for "speed" and "localization"
• Takashimaya's first store in Hanoi in 2026 — bringing Japanese quality to northern Vietnam