Home ／ Insights on entering the Indian market
2026.03.26
India's bakery and bread market is set to reach about $15 billion (roughly 2.2 trillion yen) in 2025, and is expected to more than double to over $32 billion by 2034. Its compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.76% has a dynamism that is not comparable to Japan's mature bread market (IMARC Group, 2025). With a population of 1.4 billion and rising urbanization combined with an expanding middle class, India is a "next big market" that Japanese food companies cannot afford to ignore. This article analyzes market data and the strategies of major players, and proposes concrete actions for Japanese companies to take.
Multiple research firms agree in forecasting high growth for India's bakery market. According to IMARC Group, the market was worth $15.05 billion in 2025, and is on track for a CAGR of 8.76% from 2026 to 2034, reaching $32.05 billion by 2034. TechSci Research is even more bullish, projecting growth to $21.66 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 9.8%. In every study, India's bakery market is positioned as one of the fastest-growing markets in the world.
By segment, bread accounts for 36% of the market, making it the largest category. It has penetrated every household as a daily staple, and products are diversifying from basic white bread to multigrain and millet-based bread. Biscuits and cookies form the second segment, dominated by the three major players Britannia, Parle, and ITC. The cake and pastry market is worth $2.38 billion in 2026 and is the fastest-growing segment at a CAGR of 13.22% (Mordor Intelligence). Growth is being driven by wedding culture and celebration-related demand, along with a rise in orders for Instagram-worthy custom cakes.
What matters for Japanese companies is that this market is changing not only in "quantity" but also in "quality." Rising health consciousness is rapidly expanding demand for gluten-free, low-sugar, and millet-based products, and the higher-priced premium segment is growing, mainly in urban areas. It is in this premium segment that Japan's high-quality baking technology can make a difference.
Britannia Industries Britannia is India's largest bakery company, with FY2024 sales of about 171.7 billion rupees (roughly 300 billion yen), exceeding 190 billion rupees on a trailing-twelve-month basis. It holds about a 33% share of the organized market in the biscuit business, and also operates in bread, cakes, and rusks. In April 2023, it became the first company to launch millet bread in the organized segment, getting ahead of the health-conscious trend. It has set a goal of raising the share of sales to rural areas from 40% to 50%, and is expanding its direct distribution network.
Parle Products Parle is the leader of India's biscuit market, known for its "Parle-G" brand. It has built an overwhelming distribution network with its low-price products, and its greatest strength is its ability to reach the last mile through kirana stores (independent shops). In recent years, it has been raising its average selling price by expanding its premium line "Milano" and the healthy snack "Hide & Seek."
ITC Limited (Sunfeast) ITC operates the Sunfeast brand as the food division of a hotel, tobacco, and FMCG conglomerate. It focuses on the "small indulgence" category, including filled cakes and cream biscuits, and is winning over younger consumers with a strategy that balances health and indulgence.
Theobroma is a premium bakery chain based in Mumbai that has grown rapidly since its founding in 2004. Revenue was 351.7 crore rupees (1 crore = 10 million rupees) in FY23, and is projected to reach 525-550 crore rupees in FY25. By mid-2025 it operated 225 stores across more than 30 cities, and in July 2025 it was reported that ChrysCapital would acquire a 90% stake from the founding family and ICICI Venture for 2,410 crore rupees (₹24.1 billion rupees, about 41 billion yen / about $290 million). The founding family will continue to hold 10%. The company has set up "dark kitchens" in Mumbai, Pune, Bengaluru, and Hyderabad, establishing a hybrid model that combines centralized production of dough and ganache with in-store baking.
The rise of regional bakeries Regional bakeries should also not be overlooked. CavinKare Group's CK's Bakery opened a flagship store in Bengaluru in April 2025, beginning its expansion outside Tamil Nadu. It plans to open 25 more stores in partnership with quick commerce, and is drawing attention as a model for regional brands expanding nationwide.
As a takeaway for Japanese companies, every major player in India builds its competitive advantage on "cost efficiency" and "distribution network". It is not realistic for Japanese companies to compete head-on on price, so premium positioning or differentiation through technology and ingredients becomes essential.
The first thing Japanese companies considering entry into the Indian market need to understand isvegetarian the need for accommodationだ。インドの人口の約30〜40%がベジタリアンとされ（調査により幅がある）、卵を食べないラクト・ベジタリアンも多い。このため「エッグレスケーキ」はインドでは標準的な製品カテゴリーとなっている。カスタムケーキ市場は約1,500クロール・ルピー（約270億円）規模で年率15%成長しており、ハイデラバード、バンガロール、ムンバイ、デリーなど都市部で需要が急増中だ。日本の洋菓子技術をそのまま持ち込むのではなく、エッグレスレシピの開発は大前提となる。
Making use of millet Millet use, backed strongly by the Indian government, has become a major trend in the bakery industry. Triggered by the "International Year of Millets" in 2023, millet-based bread, biscuits, and cookies have been launched into the market one after another. Millet has a low GI value and is highly nutritious, and Health consciousness Millet products are gaining support among urban consumers. Britannia's 2023 launch of millet bread is a symbolic move showing that major players are beginning to embrace this trend in earnest.
Regional differences in taste are also an important variable. In South India, a rice-based breakfast culture featuring idli and dosa remains strong, and bread has penetrated less than in North India. In IT cities such as Bengaluru and Chennai, on the other hand, sensitivity to global food culture is high, and there is significant room for premium bakeries to grow. Mumbai, in West India, is a center of artisan bakeries, as seen with Theobroma, while Delhi NCR in North India has active consumption of premium products thanks to its high income levels.
India's middle class The expansion of the middle class is a structural factor that boosts underlying demand in the bakery market. In particular, young professionals in metro cities, as their disposable income rises, tend not to hesitate to spend on high-quality artisan products. This group also has a strong affinity with the quality image of Japanese brands.
The distribution structure for bakery products in India is changing rapidly. As of 2025, supermarkets and hypermarkets account for 35% of the market, making them the largest channel, but the roughly 12 million kirana stores (independent shops) across the country still handle last-mile distribution. According to CPM India's "Kirana 2025" report, in Tier 2 cities 93% of kirana stores accept digital payments, and the digitalization of small shops is advancing rapidly.
E-commerce and quick commerce growth has been remarkable. India's online food delivery market is estimated by Expert Market Research at 61.19 billion dollars in 2025, expanding to 683.86 billion dollars by 2035 at a CAGR of 27.30%. Note that Research and Markets sizes the same market at 31.77 billion dollars in 2024, and the scope covered varies significantly between research firms, which warrants caution. Platforms such as Swiggy and Zomato are expanding from traditional restaurant delivery into instant delivery of packaged food and bakery products. In 2025, Swiggy launched its 15-minute delivery app "Snacc" in Bengaluru, and competition in speed delivery is accelerating.
The D2C (direct-to-consumer) model is also on the rise. D2C food brands can offer premium products at prices 15-30% lower than traditional retail channels, and 67% of consumers trust D2C brands more than traditional companies when it comes to ingredient quality (Rare Ideas survey). Rebel Foods launched its virtual restaurant "Firangi Bake" in 2022, entering the bakery market with a cloud-kitchen model specializing in flavored bread.
The cloud kitchen market was valued at 1.24 billion dollars in 2025 and is projected to grow to 3.69 billion dollars by 2034 (CAGR of about 12.9%). This model, which allows a bakery business to be launched with reduced upfront investment, can be a strong entry method for Japanese companies still in the exploratory stage in the Indian market. Testing products' market reception through a cloud kitchen before opening a physical store is a rational strategy that deepens market understanding while minimizing risk.
To manufacture and sell food in India, FSSAI (the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India)regulations must be complied with. The main regulatory requirements for bakery products are as follows.
Labeling obligations: All packaged foods must display the product name, the FSSAI logo and license number, the manufacturing date and expiration date, and the lot number in English or Hindi (Devanagari script). The FSSAI logo and the brand owner's license number must be displayed prominently in a color that contrasts with the background. If the manufacturer, seller, or packer differs from the brand owner, each of their license numbers must also be displayed.
Nutrition labeling: Displaying energy value, protein, carbohydrates (including sugar content), and fat per 100g or 100ml (or per serving) is mandatory. This is similar to Japan's nutrition labeling, but there are differences in the items and format, so a dedicated label design for India is needed.
Vegetarian/Non-Vegetarian Marking: As a rule unique to India, all packaged foods must display a green (vegetarian) or brown (non-vegetarian) mark. Products containing egg are classified as non-vegetarian, so clearly labeling a product as eggless is also commercially important.
Additional requirements for imported food: Products imported from Japan are required to have proof of compliance with India's import standards, an attached supplementary label in English or Hindi, and the importer's FSSAI license number displayed. For additives, only those on FSSAI's approved list can be used, so it's important to note that some additives commonly used in Japan may not be permitted in India.
Regulatory compliance may look like a barrier to entry, but it can conversely be leveraged as "proof of quality." Building the fact that you have cleared FSSAI's strict standards into your consumer communications, and branding that combines Japanese quality with compliance with Indian regulations, can become a point of differentiation.
現時点で、インドのベーカリー市場における日系企業のプレゼンスは極めて限定的だ。日本最大手の製パン企業である山崎製パンはアジア各国（マレーシア、台湾、シンガポール、タイ、ベトナム、インドネシア、中国）に展開しているが、インドには未参入である。インド国内では、ムンバイ拠点のYokohama Bread & Confectionariesが日本式甘食パンを製造しているほか、プネーのTokyo Bakeryが日本で修行した創業者によってメロンパン、あんパン、カレーパンなどを無添加で提供している。いずれも小規模であり、日系大手による本格参入はまだ行われていない。この「空白」こそが、最大の機会である。
Entry opportunity 1: Japanese-style shokupan (nama shokupan and premium shokupan)
India's bread market is still centered on mass-produced white bread, so soft, slightly sweet shokupan made using Japanese techniques such as the yudane or tangzhong method and the sponge-and-dough method can be a clear point of differentiation. One approach is to target premium supermarkets and upscale neighborhoods in Delhi, Mumbai, and Bengaluru, marketing Japanese-style shokupan as an "experience." Being eggless and vegetarian-compatible is a must.
Entry opportunity 2: Developing sweet and savory buns
Japanese-style sweet buns such as anpan, curry bread, melon bread, and cream buns have an affinity with India's snacking culture. Curry bread can be localized by fusing it with India's spice culture, and the sweet bean paste in anpan has a point of connection with India's "dal" culture, which also uses a sweet bean paste. That said, since a fried-bread culture is already established in India through samosas and pakoras, clearly defining your pricing and points of differentiation is important.
Entry opportunity 3: Exporting baking equipment and technology
The expansion of India's bakery market translates directly into increased demand for baking equipment. For Japanese baking equipment manufacturers (ovens, mixers, proofers, frozen dough technology, and so on), not only exporting products but also licensing technology and offering consulting services to major Indian bakery companies looks promising. As major players such as Britannia work to improve quality, there is strong interest in Japan's precise temperature control technology and hygiene management systems.
Entry opportunity 4: Supplying raw materials and ingredients
Japanese-grown ingredients such as matcha, Hokkaido azuki beans, and wasanbon sugar present a supply opportunity for premium bakeries in India. In particular, Health consciousness-driven matcha sweets have a strong affinity with the cafe culture of India's metro cities. Starting with B2B supply to local artisan and hotel bakeries can build brand awareness in stages.
Recommended entry steps:
India's bakery market continues to expand at a high growth rate, with a dynamism unlike Japan's mature bread market. The cake and pastry market in particular is said to be growing remarkably.
Yes. India has a large vegetarian population, and many people also don't eat eggs, so eggless cake is a standard product category. Rather than bringing over Japanese pastry techniques unchanged, developing eggless recipes is an essential prerequisite. Packaged foods are also required to display a green (vegetarian) or brown (non-vegetarian) mark.
Triggered by the International Year of Millets, and backed by the government, millet-based bread, biscuits, and cookies are being launched one after another. Millet is highly nutritious and is winning support from health-conscious urban consumers. This trend is gaining real momentum, with major companies launching millet bread.
The presence of Japanese companies is extremely limited. Major Japanese bakery companies of global scale have not launched properly in India, and only small-scale operators exist there. No major Japanese company has entered in earnest yet, and this gap is considered the biggest opportunity.
Opportunities include Japanese-style shokupan made with methods such as yudane (nama shokupan and premium shokupan), sweet and savory buns such as anpan and curry bread, exporting baking equipment and technology, and supplying ingredients such as matcha and azuki beans. Since major Indian players build their strength on cost efficiency and distribution networks, premium positioning or differentiation through technology and ingredients is essential, rather than competing on price.
A phased approach is effective: first validate consumer reaction in major cities through a cloud kitchen or a partnership with an existing premium bakery, then move on to obtaining an FSSAI license, securing a local manufacturing base, and developing an eggless product line, followed by a gradual expansion into Delhi NCR and Tier 2 cities.
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